Crypto Markets See Churn Ahead of U.S. Midterms as BTC Holds Near $77K

Bitcoin traded around the $76,900 mark after a morning dip to roughly $76,300 in Europe, finishing the latest move up about 0.2% near $77,455. Ether nudged higher, gaining roughly 0.6% to near $2,289, while other segments of the market moved unevenly: the DeFi index edged up about 0.5% and memecoins slipped.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted significant outflows for the second day running, and major exchanges and protocols saw elevated activity—from large customer withdrawals on Binance to fresh security incidents affecting platforms such as Mercado Bitcoin.

Macro and market context

Equity futures were firmer, with Nasdaq futures up modestly and Brent crude trading higher around $106 per barrel. The broader U.S. market remained sensitive to tech-stock volatility, and market attention was firmly on the U.S. midterm elections taking place today. Economic data and corporate earnings events later in the week, including a key jobs report and earnings from chipmakers, are likely to shape near-term flows.

Derivatives positioning

• High turnover, limited new positioning: Crypto futures volume jumped dramatically, rising 51% to about $168.1 billion in 24 hours, while open interest slightly declined to $134.9 billion. The combination of much higher volume with flat-to-falling OI suggests traders were executing short-term trades rather than establishing fresh directional bets—consistent with election-related uncertainty.
• Liquidations spiked: Forced closings of leveraged positions surged, with liquidations up about 171% to $382.6 million. Market taker activity tilted toward selling, with just over half of taker volume on the sell side.
• Ether saw position exits: Ether futures open interest fell more than its price, implying traders closed positions and capital flowed out of ETH contracts. Bitcoin’s OI decline more closely matched its price move, indicating a more neutral net flow. Cumulative volume delta (CVD) readings show net market-order buying for ETH but net selling for BTC. Funding rates are positive and higher than yesterday for both assets—so longs are paying shorts.
• ZEC experienced the steepest slide: Zcash led losses, falling over 7.5%. Its futures OI decreased less than its price, and it registered the most negative CVD among major coins, signaling that market-order selling dominated. Funding remains positive but eased versus 24 hours ago.
• Funding broadly positive: Most tokens carry positive funding rates across major venues—Binance, OKX, Bybit, Hyperliquid and Deribit—meaning long positions generally pay shorts. A few coins show negative funding on isolated exchanges, but none are negative across the board.
• Market-order selling predominates: When normalizing CVD by open interest, most coins appear negative, indicating that market-order selling outpaced buying over the last 24 hours. Tron stood out as the most positive on that metric, while ZEC was the weakest.
• BTC options mix: The busiest bitcoin option was a near-term call at the $78,000 strike for Nov. 7, close to spot. Activity shifted from put-heavy flows the prior day; however, puts still comprised four of the six most traded BTC options in the last day.
• Election premium visible in options: Implied volatility on the nearest-dated bitcoin options jumped to about 51% from roughly 43.5% for the closest expiries, with ether’s near-term IV moving similarly to about 59%. Short-dated skew remains elevated versus longer-dated levels, so near-term downside protection costs more.
• ETH options skewed to puts: All six of the most traded ether options over the past 24 hours were puts, led by a Nov. 6 $1,900 put roughly 16% below the spot price.

Token developments and notable moves

• Lighter (LIT) gains on CFTC plans: The perpetual-futures exchange token rose as the venue’s founder said the platform plans to apply to the CFTC this month for registration as both a trading venue and a clearinghouse; any filing would merely begin a regulatory review process.
• NEAR slips: Near fell nearly 1% and extended a multi-percent decline over 24 hours despite a governance vote to lower maximum annual token issuance from 2.5% to 1.6%.
• ZEC sees recovery after earlier drop: Zcash showed a modest intraday rise after an earlier sharp fall amid governance and grants disputes; a network upgrade is expected this week.
• DeFi resilience: Major DeFi tokens held up comparatively well—AAVE and UNI gained modestly—even as the sector faced a series of security incidents over the prior days.
• Market breadth gauges: CoinMarketCap’s altcoin season index remained unchanged near midrange, while its fear and greed indicator moved deeper into “fear.”