CBRT Analysis: TL116 Billion Invested in Funds Under Liquidation

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye has published a new analysis on its Merkezin Güncesi blog, examining how fund liquidations may affect businesses, their suppliers and broader economic activity.

The report, titled “Fund Liquidations and the Real Sector: What Do Company Data Reveal?”, was prepared by Kadir Gürci and Ünal Seven. It focuses on companies holding investments in funds placed under liquidation following the Capital Markets Board’s September 17, 2026 decision.

The researchers assessed the scale of companies’ fund exposure, their economic significance, their commercial relationships with suppliers and their borrowing patterns following the liquidation decision.

TL116 Billion Held in Funds Under Liquidation

According to the CBRT analysis, approximately 3,000 real-sector companies had a combined TL116 billion invested in funds subject to liquidation as of September 15, 2026.

Money market funds accounted for TL57 billion, representing nearly half of the total. The remaining investments were held in equity funds and other fund categories.

The report also found no significant concentration among particular industries.

The analysis initially included companies with investment balances of at least TL1 million in the affected funds. When smaller investments were included, the total reached TL116.2 billion, involving approximately 4,500 companies.

Companies Account for a Limited Share of Economic Activity

The CBRT examined the overall economic footprint of companies exposed to the funds under liquidation.

These businesses account for:

• 1.2% of the real sector’s total assets
• 0.6% of total employment
• 0.9% of total turnover
• 1.1% of exports
• 0.9% of outstanding commercial loans

The report emphasized that exposure to the affected funds varies considerably from one company to another.

To assess potential short-term vulnerabilities, the researchers calculated each company’s fund investments as a proportion of its current assets and divided businesses into three exposure categories.

Companies classified as having high exposure account for just 0.03% of total employment and turnover, according to the analysis.

Their share of outstanding commercial loans is even smaller, at approximately 0.02%.

Potential Risks Could Extend to Suppliers

The CBRT also examined how financial difficulties at companies holding investments in the affected funds could spread through commercial relationships.

A company’s economic significance is not limited to its own operations. Changes in liquidity or financing conditions may also affect other businesses through supply chains and payment relationships.

Using intercompany trade data, the researchers identified suppliers selling goods and services to companies invested in funds under liquidation.

Suppliers deriving more than 5% of their total sales from these companies account for 1.2% of overall employment and 1.5% of total turnover in the economy.

The report noted that these proportions decline significantly when companies with low exposure are excluded from the analysis.

Credit Access Continues Despite Liquidation Risks

The CBRT also assessed whether companies exposed to the affected funds have maintained access to financing.

Potential difficulties in meeting short-term obligations during the liquidation process could increase businesses’ working capital requirements, making access to credit particularly important.

Weekly data indicate that the share of short-term Turkish lira loans used by companies invested in the affected funds has been increasing within total short-term TL lending.

According to the analysis, this trend suggests that these companies have continued to access credit.

The CBRT also highlighted its October 1, 2026 measures aimed at supporting macrofinancial stability and banks’ liquidity management, noting that these changes may have contributed to the observed lending pattern.

CBRT Highlights Financial Stability Considerations

The analysis concludes that companies holding investments in funds under liquidation, along with their suppliers, account for a relatively limited share of overall economic activity.

However, the findings do not diminish the significance of liquidity pressures faced by individual companies. Nor do they provide a comprehensive assessment of the total impact of developments in the fund market on the real economy.

The CBRT warned that declining asset prices, tighter financial conditions and weakening confidence could influence household consumption, business investment and production decisions.

Measures supporting banks’ liquidity management, together with regulations intended to improve financing access for SMEs and private-sector bond issuers, may help contain potential risks.

The report also stressed that progress in the liquidation process could contribute to easing the potential effects on the real economy.

Kaynak: Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye – Merkezin Güncesi