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Meloni’s reform stalls by one vote, deepening rifts within the coalition and fueling political uncertainty and leadership strains.
In Rome on Wednesday evening, Italy’s lower house rejected a government-backed amendment to electoral reform by 188 votes to 187, signaling defections within Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s coalition and imperiling a key element of her plan to move to a fully proportional system with a winning bonus.
The defeated provision would have allowed voters to express candidate preferences on party lists; although that clause failed in a secret ballot, the broader reform package remains on the table and the government can still advance other elements.
Meloni reacted sharply on social media, calling the result “a missed opportunity for Italians” and criticizing opposition celebrations, but she stopped short of accepting calls to resign or to bring forward the general election currently scheduled for autumn 2027.
Since forming government in 2022, Meloni has led a centre-right coalition including her Brothers of Italy (FdI) party and smaller partners whose popularity has waned. Tensions surfaced ahead of the vote as junior coalition parties expressed reservations, culminating in the narrow defeat.
Opposition groups have framed the reform as an authoritarian bid to engineer a post-election majority; they are also preparing a united front for the next general election after successfully coordinating against a government-backed constitutional referendum in the spring.
Political fragmentation on the right is growing: Roberto Vannacci’s new National Future (FN), polling around 6%, now rivals Matteo Salvini’s League at roughly 5.6%, complicating Meloni’s path to a broader or safer majority without shifting either toward the centre or further right.
The parliamentary defeat exposes the fragility of Meloni’s coalition and highlights two practical risks. First, internal dissent reduces the government’s ability to enact structural reforms that require cohesive voting discipline, increasing legislative uncertainty. Second, a splintering right could reshape electoral math by elevating smaller hard-right forces like FN, which may fragment centre-right votes and make majority-building harder even under a revised electoral system.
Economically, markets typically react uneasily to visible political instability in Italy because it raises questions about policy continuity and reform capacity; investor focus will sharpen on coalition cohesion and any signs of an early election that could alter fiscal or EU-facing commitments.