Turkish Households’ 12-Month Inflation Expectations Edge Up to 45.60%

News : Gökhan Turhan

Households in Türkiye slightly raised their inflation expectations for the next 12 months in September, while expectations for residential property price growth declined, according to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s (CBRT) September 2026 Household Expectations Survey.

The survey, conducted between September 7 and 15 with responses from 3,280 households, showed that the annual inflation rate expected by households for the next 12 months increased to 45.60%, up marginally from 45.58% in August.

Expectations for housing prices decline

Households’ expectations for residential property price growth over the next 12 months fell to 30.69% in September from 32.13% in August, marking a monthly decline of 1.44 percentage points.

Meanwhile, 61.3% of respondents expected housing prices to rise above their current rate of increase over the next 12 months, down from 62.1% in August.

Dollar exchange rate expectation rises to TL 55.90

The expected USD/TRY exchange rate for 12 months ahead increased to TL 55.90, compared with TL 54.50 in August.

The corresponding expected annual change in the dollar exchange rate also rose, reaching 16.05% in September from 15.04% a month earlier.

Food and energy remain key sources of price pressure

Food remained the category most frequently identified by households as having experienced the largest price increases over the past year, with a share of 37.8%. However, the figure was 1.5 percentage points lower than in August.

Fuel and energy followed at 36.2%.

Looking ahead, food was again the category most widely expected to see the largest price increases over the next 12 months, at 36.7%, followed by fuel and energy at 34.7%.

Gold remains the leading investment preference

Gold continued to rank first among households’ preferred investment options. The share of respondents saying they would buy gold rose to 43.0% in September from 41.3% in August.

The proportion choosing to purchase a house, shop or land declined to 33.6% from 37.1% a month earlier.

Meanwhile, the share opting to invest in equities increased to 3.2%, while the preference for purchasing foreign currency rose to 4.2%.

The CBRT noted that the survey results reflect household expectations and do not represent the central bank’s own views or forecasts.