Germany to Gradually Raise Cigarette Prices from 2027 to 2030

German lawmakers have approved a staged increase in tobacco taxes that will push the price of a standard pack of 20 cigarettes higher from 2027 through 2030, with immediate budgetary and public health goals highlighted during parliamentary debate.

The legislation projects standard pack prices rising to €8.77 in 2027, €9.56 in 2028, €10.42 in 2029 and €11.36 in 2030, while some premium brands could reach about €14. Hand-rolling tobacco and e-cigarette liquids are also set for price adjustments, the latter facing a slightly larger rise than initially expected.

The government expects the reform to yield an additional €12 billion over four years, with estimated extra revenue of about €1.5 billion in 2027 rising to €4.5 billion by 2030. In the previous year, tobacco duty generated €17.6 billion.

During Bundestag debate, SPD MP Ingo Vogel framed the reform as serving both budgetary balance and public health by making nicotine less attractive, and he noted that cigar and cigarillo taxes would not increase as sharply as once planned. Vogel also said concerns from customs officials and their union about a potential black market rise are being taken very seriously.

Opposition voices included CDU MP Carsten Brodesser, who urged more moderate increases citing risks to legal tobacco trade and tax revenue, though his proposal was not adopted. The far-right AfD criticised the move as contradictory, arguing the government cannot simultaneously claim public health aims and expect revenue to rise. The Greens support a higher tobacco tax in principle but consider the planned steps too modest, while Die Linke voted against the reform.

The government referenced public health data noting that, according to the 2025 microcensus, about 19% of people aged 15 and over in Germany smoke, with 14% regularly and 5% occasionally. The German Cancer Research Centre reported around 131,000 tobacco-related deaths in 2023. Health experts cited in the debate regard higher prices as an effective tool to encourage quitting.

The amendment will be voted on in the Bundesrat on Friday, with no objections currently anticipated and approval expected.

Liberal News Analysis: What Does This Development Mean?

The staged tax increases signal a policy balancing act between raising revenue and pursuing public health objectives, with the government projecting substantial additional income but facing warnings about potential shifts to the black market and impacts on legal retailers. Parliamentary debate reflected differing priorities across parties, from calls for moderation to demands for stronger measures, underscoring political contention over fiscal versus health outcomes. The expected Bundesrat approval indicates a clear legislative path forward while implementation will test assumptions about consumer behavior and enforcement challenges.

Quick Glance: What You Need to Know

• Standard cigarette pack prices are projected to rise to €8.77 in 2027, €9.56 in 2028, €10.42 in 2029 and €11.36 in 2030.
• Some premium cigarettes could cost about €14 and hand-rolling tobacco will become significantly more expensive.
• The government expects an additional €12 billion over four years, with annual gains rising from about €1.5 billion in 2027 to €4.5 billion in 2030.
• SPD emphasized both budgetary and public health aims, and adjustments to cigar and cigarillo taxes were moderated while e-cigarette liquid taxes rose slightly more than planned.
• Opposition parties raised concerns about revenue forecasts and black market risks, and CDU proposals for milder increases were rejected.
• According to the 2025 microcensus, 19% of Germans aged 15 and over smoke, and the German Cancer Research Centre reported about 131,000 tobacco-related deaths in 2023.
• The Bundesrat is scheduled to vote on the amendment on Friday and approval is expected.