Real Sector Confidence Index Rises to 102.5 in September

News: Gökhan Turhan

According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s September 2026 data, the Real Sector Confidence Index rose by 0.1 points to 102.5. Expectations in the manufacturing industry were also released.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) has released the results of its September 2026 Business Tendency Survey. According to data compiled from the weighted responses of 1,982 companies operating in the manufacturing industry, the seasonally adjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI-SA) increased by 0.1 points from the previous month to 102.5.

The assessments covering the general business outlook, current total order volume, total employment expected over the next three months, and total orders received over the past three months contributed positively to the index. In contrast, assessments regarding export orders expected over the next three months, current finished goods inventories, fixed capital investment expenditure, and production volume expected over the next three months had a downward effect on the index.

The unadjusted Real Sector Confidence Index declined by 0.8 points to 102.0 in September compared with the previous month. According to the CBRT, an RSCI value of 100 indicates a stable outlook for economic activity, a value above 100 indicates increased confidence, while a value below 100 indicates declining confidence among the real-sector representatives covered by the survey.

Changes in Orders and Production Expectations

Assessments for the past three months showed that the trend in favor of respondents reporting an increase in production volume strengthened. The trend in favor of those reporting a decline in domestic market orders shifted toward those reporting an increase, while the trend in export orders shifted from those reporting an increase toward those reporting a decline.

For the next three months, the trend among respondents expecting an increase in production volume and export orders weakened, while expectations for an increase in domestic market orders strengthened. Upward expectations for employment over the next three months also increased compared with the previous month. In contrast, expectations for an increase in fixed capital investment expenditure over the next 12 months weakened.

Annual PPI Expectation Stands at 31 Percent

The CBRT survey also showed changes in cost and selling-price expectations. The trend among respondents expecting average unit costs to increase over the next three months, as well as those reporting cost increases over the previous three months, strengthened. Upward expectations for selling prices over the next three months also increased.

The annual Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation expectation for the end of the next 12-month period declined by 0.2 points to 31.0 percent compared with the previous month.

The CBRT stated that the survey results are calculated based on respondents’ assessments and do not reflect the views or forecasts of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye. The September Business Tendency Survey was conducted between September 1 and 14, 2026.