Liberal Party wins three Canadian by-elections, Carney’s majority intact

Three parliamentary by-elections held across Canada on Monday delivered victories for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party, preserving the government’s slim majority after the resignations of three MPs and amid recent trade tensions with the United States, party officials and pollsters reported.

In Quebec’s Chicoutimi—Le Fjord the Liberals captured a seat formerly held by the Conservatives, with candidate Daniel Gobeil, a dairy farmer, winning more than half of the vote and defeating the Bloc Québécois and Conservative challengers. Gobeil addressed supporters in French saying the result supports Canadian unity.

In Ontario’s Beaches—East York, Tanveer Shahnawaz held the Liberal seat, while Braeden Caley retained the party’s position in North Vancouver—Capilano, British Columbia. Pollsters had anticipated the Liberal holds in Ontario and British Columbia.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre faces continued difficulty closing the gap with the Liberals: polls show the Conservatives trailing by about 10 points since last year’s federal election, and several Conservative MPs have either crossed to the Liberals or resigned.

Richard Martel, the former Conservative MP whose Quebec seat triggered the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election, resigned after his appointment to the Senate. Abacus Data reported a four-point rise in government approval and a boost in Carney’s personal popularity, which analyst David Coletto attributed to Canadians’ reaction to US President Donald Trump’s unpopularity and Carney’s decision to end trade talks with the White House.

Quebec faces particular exposure to new US tariffs imposed after the collapse of talks, and Oxford Economics warned that the province could lose C$2bn in annual output by 2028 as a result of the measures.

Liberal News Analysis: What Does This Development Mean?

The Liberal Party’s clean sweep in three by-elections preserves Prime Minister Mark Carney’s narrow Commons majority and includes a notable gain in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord from the Conservatives. Polling data cited in the original reporting indicate an uptick in government and leader approval linked to the halt of trade negotiations with the United States and reactions to US leadership perceptions. The Quebec result was highlighted for its plurality shift and its economic vulnerability to newly imposed US tariffs.

Quick Glance: What You Need to Know

• Liberals won three by-elections held Monday, maintaining the government’s slim majority.
• Daniel Gobeil won Chicoutimi—Le Fjord for the Liberals, taking a formerly Conservative seat.
• Tanveer Shahnawaz and Braeden Caley held Liberal seats in Ontario and British Columbia respectively.
• Abacus Data reported a four-point rise in government approval and stronger personal ratings for Carney, especially in Quebec.
• Quebec’s economy is cited as vulnerable to US tariffs, with Oxford Economics estimating a potential C$2bn annual output loss by 2028.