TCMB: Housing Supply Rises in Earthquake Zone as Rent Inflation Slows

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) has analyzed changes in housing supply and regional rent inflation following the earthquakes of February 6, 2023. The analysis, published under the title “Developments in Housing Supply and Regional Rent Inflation in the Earthquake Zone,” highlights the impact of reconstruction efforts on rental price increases.

According to the analysis published in the CBRT’s Merkezin Güncesi on September 2, 2026, rent inflation has been one of the most persistent components during the disinflation process.

The report notes that the housing stock in the earthquake-affected region declined significantly after the February 6 earthquakes, leading to a rapid increase in rents. Migration triggered by the disaster also increased demand for rental housing and pushed rents higher in several provinces that received displaced residents.

The CBRT highlighted the rapid recovery in housing supply through the extensive reconstruction process led by the public sector.

The number of earthquake homes completed by the Housing Development Administration of Türkiye (TOKİ) reached approximately 201,000 at the beginning of 2025 and around 434,000 by the end of the year. The CBRT noted that this figure represents a substantial increase in housing supply compared with the approximately 213,000 homes TOKİ built during the three years preceding the earthquakes.

The recovery in housing supply has also become evident in building occupancy permits. The earthquake-affected provinces accounted for around 12% of building occupancy permits across Türkiye before the disaster, but their share exceeded 20% in 2025.

An analysis based on online rental listings found that rent inflation in earthquake-affected provinces remained significantly above that of other provinces in 2023 and 2024. However, rental inflation began to slow in 2025 as the delivery of newly built homes accelerated.

The CBRT also identified a notable change in provinces indirectly affected by the earthquakes. While rent inflation in these provinces remained close to the levels recorded in other parts of Türkiye during 2024 and 2025, it was noticeably lower in 2026.

According to the analysis, the recovery in housing supply in the earthquake zone may gradually be reducing rental housing demand in provinces that previously received large numbers of people displaced by the disaster, as some residents return to their home provinces.

The CBRT emphasized that the return of households does not necessarily occur simultaneously with the delivery of new homes, as family circumstances and other constraints can delay relocation decisions.

Another indicator highlighted by the central bank is the geographical shift in construction activity. As major earthquake housing projects approach completion, construction-sector employment has declined in the earthquake zone while rising rapidly in provinces outside the region.

The CBRT said this shift could indicate that the increase in housing supply may spread to a wider geographical area in the coming period.

Taking the gradual nature of the return migration into account, the central bank assessed that the impact of the reconstruction process on rental markets may extend beyond the delivery of earthquake housing.

The CBRT expects the increase in housing supply in the earthquake-affected region to continue putting downward pressure on rent increases both within the region and in provinces indirectly affected by the disaster.